{"schema_version":"1.0","snapshot_id":"water-outlook-uk-2026-08-04-model-and-data-audit","created_at":"2026-08-04T20:50:00+01:00","source_cutoff":"2026-08-08T13:28:41Z","geography_version":"ea-wrz-2025-10-08+dcw-wrz-2025-09-22","postcode_version":"postcodes-io-ons-derived-2026-07-27","model_versions":{"nowcast":null,"resource_forecast":"horizon-gated-regional-reservoir-groundwater-and-river-flow-baselines","restriction_risk":"ordinal-only-no-uncalibrated-probabilities","research_models":["thames-london-calendar-change-warning-0.1","affinity-central-lilley-groundwater-0.1","national-groundwater-calendar-change-0.1","cambridge-five-borehole-seasonal-index-0.1","cambridge-river-and-operational-context-0.1","southern-river-test-flow-ridge-0.1","south-staffs-bewdley-flow-huber-0.2","ses-chipstead-redhill-warning-0.1","essex-seasonal-decile-transfer-0.1","regionwide-generalised-observation-warning-0.1","south-east-layered-resource-warning-0.1","layered-fallback-replacements-0.1","public-experimental-restriction-risk-levels-0.1"]},"publication_health":"degraded","publication_notes":["All incumbent English supplier areas are represented by the commissioned Environment Agency Water Resource Zone layer.","Site-specific inset appointments remain a declared exception until Ofwat legal boundaries are overlaid.","Yorkshire and Cambridge have supplier-covering resource baselines. Twenty-seven further Water Resource Zone polygons receive explicitly scoped reservoir, groundwater or river-flow indicators, including newly restored Blagdon, Derwent Valley, Ardingly and Roadford trajectories.","Thames London's four passing level horizons are served only within the London Water Resource Zone. Essex receives passing 30- and 60-day combined-reservoir horizons while its three Suffolk zones remain uncovered. Wessex serves Woodyates groundwater and a target-freshness-gated Clatworthy component. Anglian Water, Northumbrian Water, Portsmouth Water and United Utilities remain blocked from historical numerical forecasts.","The UKCEH monthly reservoir archive and Yorkshire Water supply-system polygon lookup are not used. Named reservoir histories are rebuilt independently from Environment Agency OGL water-situation reports, leave ambiguous markers missing and publish only newly passing horizons; Yorkshire's separate CC BY 4.0 reservoir feed remains active.","Numerical resource trajectories and restriction warnings have separate gates. A published level forecast never implies a hosepipe-ban probability.","SES now publishes separately gated Chipstead groundwater and Bough Beech reservoir indicators; qualified Riverhead history adds Lower Greensand research context. Exact Riverhead trigger values and event-era Bough Beech storage remain unavailable for a complete conjunctive backtest.","Cambridge now has qualified public histories for all four river gauges in its draft multi-trigger plan and a pre-event 110 Ml/d operational-pressure boundary. That fast-stress arm remains research-only because historic continuous demand, available production and the supplier's simulated river/climate series are not public.","Rainfall-only regional warnings have been removed for Anglian, South East, Affinity, United Utilities and South West Water; rainfall now creates only the light dry-weather-pressure level. Their postcode-scoped four-level warnings are public experimental previews: measured reservoir or aquifer stress is required for the stronger resource-warning level, official restrictions override at level 4, and evidence older than 14 days removes the current level. Affinity states its demand-led 2026 miss, United Utilities states that its resource archive begins after the 2010 ban, and the South West mainland warning is not transferred to the Isles of Scilly. No warning is presented as a ban date or probability.","Scottish Water's national storage observation is live; postcode-to-operational-resource geography remains an explicit low-confidence gap.","Official restrictions are served from one atomically replaceable D1 publication. Stale absence checks fail closed, while additions, removals and changed authority pages require explicit review.","Decoded Met Office forecast runs are signed locally and published to D1 without putting the API credential or native GRIB decoder in the hosted worker."],"coverage":{"supplier_organisations":20,"england_incumbent_brands":17,"water_resource_zone_features":129,"reporting_inset_companies":9,"inset_companies_visible_in_wrz_layer":1,"england_brands_with_model_experiments":16,"english_wrzs_with_published_numerical_horizon":36,"english_wrzs_total":101,"unweighted_numerical_wrz_coverage_percent":35.6,"resident_weighted_numerical_coverage_percent":78,"restriction_prediction_experiments":12,"published_ordinal_restriction_predictions":2,"resident_weighted_published_ordinal_restriction_coverage_percent":10.7,"resident_weighted_published_or_shadow_restriction_coverage_percent":58.7,"ban_exposure_weighted_restriction_warning_coverage_percent":56.8,"completed_ban_exposure_weighted_restriction_warning_coverage_percent":47.8,"published_numeric_restriction_probabilities":0,"active_or_partially_active_supplier_organisations":9,"source_registry":{"total":48,"commissioned":33,"liveShadow":9,"configured":3,"termsReviewed":3,"disabled":0}},"suppliers":[{"id":"afw","code":"AFW","name":"Affinity Water","category":"england_incumbent","wrz_count":8,"model_state":"partial_regional_baseline"},{"id":"aws","code":"AWS","name":"Anglian Water","category":"england_incumbent","wrz_count":27,"model_state":"partial_regional_baseline"},{"id":"bwx","code":"BWX","name":"Bristol Water","category":"england_incumbent","wrz_count":1,"model_state":"partial_regional_baseline"},{"id":"cam","code":"CAM","name":"Cambridge Water","category":"england_incumbent","wrz_count":1,"model_state":"regional_baseline"},{"id":"esw","code":"ESW","name":"Essex & Suffolk Water","category":"england_incumbent","wrz_count":4,"model_state":"partial_regional_baseline"},{"id":"nwl","code":"NWL","name":"Northumbrian Water","category":"england_incumbent","wrz_count":2,"model_state":"partial_regional_baseline"},{"id":"pws","code":"PWS","name":"Portsmouth Water","category":"england_incumbent","wrz_count":1,"model_state":"model_pending"},{"id":"ses","code":"SES","name":"SES Water","category":"england_incumbent","wrz_count":1,"model_state":"partial_regional_baseline"},{"id":"sew","code":"SEW","name":"South East Water","category":"england_incumbent","wrz_count":8,"model_state":"partial_regional_baseline"},{"id":"ssw","code":"SSW","name":"South Staffs Water","category":"england_incumbent","wrz_count":1,"model_state":"partial_regional_baseline"},{"id":"svt","code":"SVT","name":"Severn Trent Water","category":"england_incumbent","wrz_count":15,"model_state":"partial_regional_baseline"},{"id":"sws","code":"SWS","name":"Southern Water","category":"england_incumbent","wrz_count":14,"model_state":"partial_regional_baseline"},{"id":"sww","code":"SWW","name":"South West Water","category":"england_incumbent","wrz_count":5,"model_state":"partial_regional_baseline"},{"id":"tws","code":"TWS","name":"Thames Water","category":"england_incumbent","wrz_count":6,"model_state":"partial_regional_baseline"},{"id":"uux","code":"UUX","name":"United Utilities","category":"england_incumbent","wrz_count":4,"model_state":"partial_regional_baseline"},{"id":"wxw","code":"WXW","name":"Wessex Water","category":"england_incumbent","wrz_count":1,"model_state":"partial_regional_baseline"},{"id":"yws","code":"YWS","name":"Yorkshire Water","category":"england_incumbent","wrz_count":2,"model_state":"regional_baseline"},{"id":"dcw","code":"DCW","name":"Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water","category":"wales_cross_border","wrz_count":23,"model_state":"model_pending"},{"id":"hdd","code":"HDD","name":"Hafren Dyfrdwy","category":"wales_cross_border","wrz_count":4,"model_state":"model_pending"},{"id":"vwp","code":"VWP","name":"Veolia Water Projects","category":"inset_published_wrz","wrz_count":1,"model_state":"model_pending"},{"id":"scottish-water","code":"SCT","name":"Scottish Water","category":"scotland_national","wrz_count":0,"model_state":"country_observation"}],"inset_suppliers":[{"code":"ALB","name":"Albion Water","wrzMapState":"site_boundaries_pending"},{"code":"ALE","name":"Albion Eco","wrzMapState":"site_boundaries_pending"},{"code":"ESP","name":"ESP Water","wrzMapState":"site_boundaries_pending"},{"code":"ICW","name":"Icosa Water","wrzMapState":"site_boundaries_pending"},{"code":"IWN","name":"Independent Water Networks","wrzMapState":"site_boundaries_pending"},{"code":"LNW","name":"Leep Networks (Water)","wrzMapState":"site_boundaries_pending"},{"code":"MTX","name":"Matrix Water","wrzMapState":"site_boundaries_pending"},{"code":"MUA","name":"MUA Water","wrzMapState":"site_boundaries_pending"},{"code":"VWP","name":"Veolia Water Projects","wrzMapState":"one_published_wrz"}],"official_restrictions":{"affectedSupplierCount":9,"checkedAt":"2026-08-08T13:28:41Z","sourceUrl":"https://www.water.org.uk/water-supply/hosepipe-bans-faqs","suppliers":[{"code":"AFW","name":"Affinity Water","scope":"Affinity Water Central region","announcedAt":"2026-07-10T00:00:00+01:00","effectiveFrom":"2026-07-17T00:01:00+01:00","authorityUrl":"https://www.affinitywater.co.uk/hosepipeban","formalNoticeUrl":"https://www.affinitywater.co.uk/hosepipeban","verifiedAt":"2026-08-08T13:28:41Z","scopeType":"grouped_resource_zones","zoneCodes":["AFWMS1","AFWCN2","AFWLE3","AFWPN4","AFWST5","AFWWY6"],"scopeStages":null,"operationalEvidence":null},{"code":"AWS","name":"Anglian Water","scope":"Anglian Water supply area, excluding Hartlepool","announcedAt":"2026-07-10T00:00:00+01:00","effectiveFrom":"2026-07-11T01:01:00+01:00","authorityUrl":"https://www.anglianwater.co.uk/help-and-advice/save-water/hosepipe-restrictions","formalNoticeUrl":"https://www.anglianwater.co.uk/siteassets/household/environment/tubs/statutory-notice-for-temporary-use-ban-v3pdf","verifiedAt":"2026-08-08T13:28:41Z","scopeType":"grouped_resource_zones","zoneCodes":["AWSEXC","AWSEXS","AWSFND","AWSLNB","AWSLNC","AWSLNE","AWSLNN","AWSNAY","AWSNBR","AWSNED","AWSNEH","AWSNHA","AWSNHL","AWSNNC","AWSNTB","AWSNWY","AWSRTC","AWSRTN","AWSRTS","AWSRTW","AWSSHB","AWSSUE","AWSSUI","AWSSUS","AWSSUT","AWSSWC"],"scopeStages":null,"operationalEvidence":null},{"code":"ESW","name":"Essex & Suffolk Water","scope":"All Essex & Suffolk Water customers","announcedAt":null,"effectiveFrom":"2026-08-03T00:01:00+01:00","authorityUrl":"https://www.eswater.co.uk/help-and-support/water/saving-water/temporary-use-ban/","formalNoticeUrl":"https://www.eswater.co.uk/globalassets/customer-pdfs/tubs---stat-notice.pdf","verifiedAt":"2026-08-08T13:28:41Z","scopeType":"whole_supplier","zoneCodes":null,"scopeStages":null,"operationalEvidence":null},{"code":"CAM","name":"Cambridge Water","scope":"All Cambridge Water customers","announcedAt":"2026-07-09T00:00:00+01:00","effectiveFrom":"2026-07-17T01:00:00+01:00","authorityUrl":"https://www.cambridge-water.co.uk/household/temporary-hosepipe-ban/","formalNoticeUrl":"https://www.cambridge-water.co.uk/media/ohjfsc2d/cambridge-water-statutory-notice-for-restrictions-on-water-use.pdf","verifiedAt":"2026-08-08T13:28:41Z","scopeType":"whole_supplier","zoneCodes":null,"scopeStages":null,"operationalEvidence":null},{"code":"SWS","name":"Southern Water","scope":"Southern Water customers in Hampshire and the Isle of Wight","announcedAt":null,"effectiveFrom":"2026-07-10T00:01:00+01:00","authorityUrl":"https://www.southernwater.co.uk/help-and-support/report-a-breach-of-water-restrictions/","formalNoticeUrl":"https://www.southernwater.co.uk/media/tmtokr24/southern-water-tub-public-notice-2026.pdf","verifiedAt":"2026-08-08T13:28:41Z","scopeType":"grouped_resource_zones","zoneCodes":["SWSHAD","SWSHKC","SWSHRU","SWSHSE","SWSHSW","SWSHWN","SWSIOW"],"scopeStages":null,"operationalEvidence":null},{"code":"SEW","name":"South East Water","scope":"All South East Water supply areas; Kent began 3 July and remaining areas began 25 July","announcedAt":null,"effectiveFrom":"2026-07-25T00:01:00+01:00","authorityUrl":"https://corporate.southeastwater.co.uk/about/updates/tubs-26/","formalNoticeUrl":"https://corporate.southeastwater.co.uk/about/updates/tubs-26/","verifiedAt":"2026-08-08T13:28:41Z","scopeType":"whole_supplier","zoneCodes":null,"scopeStages":[{"scope":"South East Water customers in Kent","zoneCodes":["SEWTW1","SEWCB7","SEWMT6","SEWAF8"],"announcedAt":"2026-06-25T00:00:00+01:00","effectiveFrom":"2026-07-03T00:01:00+01:00","formalNoticeUrl":"https://cdn.southeastwater.co.uk/SewHousehold/Documents/LEGAL_NOTICE-TUBS_JUN_26.pdf"},{"scope":"South East Water customers in Sussex, Surrey, Hampshire and Berkshire","zoneCodes":["SEWEB3","SEWHH2","SEWFN5","SEWBK4"],"announcedAt":"2026-07-20T00:00:00+01:00","effectiveFrom":"2026-07-25T00:01:00+01:00","formalNoticeUrl":"https://cdn.southeastwater.co.uk/SewHousehold/Documents/Sussex_and_West_Public_Notice_2026.pdf"}],"operationalEvidence":null},{"code":"SWW","name":"South West Water","scope":"All South West Water customers in Devon, Cornwall, parts of Dorset and Somerset, and the Isles of Scilly","announcedAt":null,"effectiveFrom":"2026-08-08T00:01:00+01:00","authorityUrl":"https://www.southwestwater.co.uk/environment/water-resources/hosepipe-ban","formalNoticeUrl":"https://www.southwestwater.co.uk/environment/water-resources/hosepipe-ban","verifiedAt":"2026-08-08T13:28:41Z","scopeType":"whole_supplier","zoneCodes":["SWWBNM","SWWRDF","SWWWMB","SWWCLF","SWWIOS"],"scopeStages":null,"operationalEvidence":null},{"code":"DCW","name":"Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water","scope":"Mid and south Ceredigion, parts of north Pembrokeshire and north Carmarthenshire","announcedAt":"2026-07-18T00:00:00+01:00","effectiveFrom":"2026-07-19T10:00:00+01:00","authorityUrl":"https://www.dwrcymru.com/en/drought/hosepipe-ban","formalNoticeUrl":"https://corporate.dwrcymru.com/en/news-media/2026/dwr-cymru-welsh-water-introduces-hosepipe-ban-affecting-33000-properties-in-west-wales","verifiedAt":"2026-08-08T13:28:41Z","scopeType":"operational_exception","zoneCodes":null,"scopeStages":null,"operationalEvidence":"The supplier defines a local west-Wales supply area that does not align safely with the published Water Resource Zone polygons."},{"code":"TWS","name":"Thames Water","scope":"All customers whose water is supplied by Thames Water","announcedAt":null,"effectiveFrom":"2026-07-23T00:01:00+01:00","authorityUrl":"https://www.thameswater.co.uk/help/temporary-hosepipe-ban","formalNoticeUrl":"https://www.thameswater.co.uk/help/temporary-hosepipe-ban","verifiedAt":"2026-08-08T13:28:41Z","scopeType":"whole_supplier","zoneCodes":null,"scopeStages":null,"operationalEvidence":null}]},"sources":[{"id":"environment-agency-reservoir-history","publisher":"Environment Agency","kind":"monthly_reservoir_storage_history","commissioning_state":"commissioned","latest_observation":"2026-07-31","expected_cadence":"P1M","stale_after":"P45D","licence":"Open Government Licence v3.0","endpoint":"https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/water-situation-reports-for-england"},{"id":"ea-water-resource-zones","publisher":"Environment Agency","kind":"operational_geography","commissioning_state":"commissioned","latest_observation":"2025-10-08","expected_cadence":"on_revision","stale_after":"version_check","licence":"Open Government 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