| Yorkshire WaterWhole supplier region. The frozen regional threshold passed the recall-first later test checks and is served as watch/no-current-signal, never as a probability. | 2/2 separate starts detected | 14/16 historical quiet years stayed quiet | Warning available |
| Thames WaterLondon public preview; five non-London zones remain research only. The early preview caught every known London restriction start, including the held-back later test. Eleven quiet seasons would also have shown an early watch, which is accepted here because this is a deliberately cautious risk signal with a clear disclaimer, never a ban probability. A separate research-only Thames Valley build transfers the London-led company-wide policy arm and preserves Farmoor, Kennet, Wey and Stonor as distinct local systems. Exact-gauge measured Farmoor flow now supports the 2025 SWOX event, and exact Tilford flow reproduces the Guildford plan's 1976 example, but neither supplies an tested on later data local warning. Only London increases public warning reach. | 1/1 temporal later test start detected; 4/4 total replay | 14/25 quiet seasons stayed quiet; early warnings are intentional | Experimental warning |
| South East WaterEight zones; groundwater and operational pressures kept separate. Public experimental warning: dry weather creates a light alert, while a stronger warning requires supplier-weighted groundwater or reservoir confirmation. The slow-resource rule detected the held-back 2025 start 32 days ahead, and official operational alerts cover fast pressure episodes. This is an early risk warning, not a ban forecast or probability. | 2025 slow-resource later test detected 32 days ahead; 4/4 combined replay | 0/33 warning weeks in the separate 2024 quiet later test | Experimental warning |
| South West WaterStrategic reservoir systems and separate operational episodes. Public experimental warning for the four mainland supply areas: dry weather creates a light alert, strategic-reservoir stress creates a stronger warning in the storage-led zones, and official supplier alerts cover operational events. The Isles of Scilly remain unavailable because the mainland evidence is not transferred there. This is a risk warning, not a ban forecast. | 2/2 slow-resource episodes detected; 2026 operations detected only at announcement | 59/65 later 2024–2025 quiet weeks stayed quiet | Experimental warning |
| Affinity WaterCentral zones 1–6. Public low-confidence warning for Central zones 1–6: dry weather creates a light alert and sustained groundwater stress creates a stronger warning. It caught 2012 but missed the demand-led 2026 event, so the page explicitly marks short-term demand, transfers, treatment and operating pressure as not fully observed. This is a cautious risk alert, not a forecast. | 1/2 starts detected; the 2026 demand-led event was missed | 0/32 warning weeks in the later 2025 quiet period | Experimental warning |
| Cambridge WaterCambridge Water Resource Zone. The threshold frozen from the 1991 restriction missed the held-back 2026 demand-led event. A retrospective liberal threshold catches it but was chosen after the later test and falsely signals in 13 of 33 quiet seasons. | 0/1 held-back start detected | 31/33 pre-later test quiet seasons stayed quiet | Research only |
| Southern WaterHampshire and Isle of Wight. The frozen 28-day River Test recession rule caught the held-back 2025 and 2026 starts. Its one retained false alarm coincided with a real 2019 drought-permit application; it is served only as a watch, never a probability. | 2/2 temporal later test starts detected | 4/5 post-2019 no-ban seasons stayed quiet | Warning available |
| SES WaterWhole supplier Water Resource Zone. A frozen Chipstead-plus-six-month-rainfall rule replays the 2005 fitting episode and 2012 start. The new Bough Beech archive explains the only later false signal, but begins in 2016 and therefore cannot test event-era recall or make the retrospective architecture separate. | 1/1 retrospective start detected; 0 held-back starts available | 13/14 later no-ban seasons stayed quiet | Research only |
| Essex & Suffolk WaterEssex reservoir arm, Suffolk Rook Hall groundwater arm and Northern Central river-source map. The Essex reservoir arm signals six days before the 2026 start. The supplier-named Rook Hall arm replays the 1997 Suffolk start 365 days early and supplies live groundwater context for Hartismere and Blyth. Exact qualified Ingworth flow and two upstream Waveney proxy histories are complete, but the exact Ellingham Mill licence-flow series is not publicly exposed. No public coverage is added until the four-zone source replay is complete and separately tested. | 2/2 known starts replayed retrospectively; 0 held-back starts; only Essex source-matched at the 2026 signal | The deliberately sensitive Rook Hall arm false-signals in 2019, 2022 and 2025 | Research only |
| Anglian WaterEast region excluding Hartlepool; layered groundwater warning. Public experimental warning for Anglian's East region excluding Hartlepool: dry weather creates a light alert and persistent stress across supplier-linked groundwater sites creates a stronger warning. The development replay detected both known starts and stayed quiet throughout the later 2025 period. Missing demand and operating inputs are disclosed, and the level is never presented as a ban probability. | 2/2 starts detected in development replay; 2026 first signal 179 days ahead | 0/32 warning weeks in the later 2025 quiet period | Experimental warning |
| Bristol WaterSingle Bristol Water Resource Zone. The former historical reservoir replay has been removed. The 1975-76 event predates available data, the 1990 canal-failure restriction lacks a usable pre-event reading, and current supplier facts alone cannot validate a warning. | Historical reservoir replay removed | No reusable long reservoir history | Waiting for usable data |
| Northumbrian WaterKielder and Berwick-Fowberry systems separately. Northumbrian says it has never needed Level-2, Level-3 or Level-4 restrictions. Its Kielder supply area decision uses Whittle Dene, Northumbrian Derwent and Weardale trigger systems, while Berwick-Fowberry uses a separate groundwater trigger. The long public Kielder and Teesdale series do not reproduce that architecture, so there is neither an event-recall test nor a decision-complete quiet replay. Still needed: A approved covering the same dates history for the three Kielder trigger systems and Berwick groundwater, plus a future separately observable restriction start; no threshold can manufacture the missing positive outcome. Sources: Northumbrian Water Drought Plan 2022 ↗; Northumbrian Water Drought Plan 2022 appendix ↗ | 0 target-safe restriction starts available | Public Kielder/Teesdale histories do not represent all statutory trigger systems | Waiting for usable data |
| Portsmouth WaterSingle Portsmouth Water Resource Zone. Portsmouth last imposed restrictions in 1976. Its decision-leading Well X record spans more than 80 years, but the site's identity and absolute history are not shown; the public current page gives only an anomaly from average. That cannot reconstruct target-safe trigger crossings or test event recall. Still needed: A approved absolute Well X history with dated trigger curves and the 1976 pre-decision window, or a supplier-approved public surrochecks demonstrated against Well X. Sources: Portsmouth Water current resource position ↗; Portsmouth Water 2026 drought-trigger review ↗ | 0 target-safe restriction starts in the public-data era | Current public reporting exposes an anomaly, not the absolute trigger history | Waiting for usable data |
| South Staffs WaterSingle South Staffs Water Resource Zone. The 1976 restriction predates the public Blithfield archive. In 2025 the statutory Level-2 curve was crossed but South Staffs decided not to impose a TUB. The monthly public series also omits River Severn support, groundwater, demand and operations, so the curve remains research context and the corrected level backtest still publishes no forecasts. | 0 target-safe restriction starts available | 0/1 separately verified modern Level-2 no-ban counterexamples stayed quiet | Research only |
| Severn Trent Water1995 whole-supplier event; current Derwent Valley indicator represents only Strategic Grid East. The historical Derwent and Clywedog component replay has been removed. The separately reusable regional-total history begins in 2023, so it cannot reconstruct the 1995 event or enough quiet seasons for a warning model. | 1995 component replay removed | separate regional-total history starts in 2023 | Waiting for usable data |
| United UtilitiesStrategic Resource Zone layered reservoir context. Public low-confidence resource watch: current North West climate and regional storage are shown together, but the page states clearly that the usable reservoir archive begins after the 2010 ban and the warning is therefore untested against an implemented local ban. It is a broad early-risk alert, never a ban forecast or probability. | 2010 start cannot be scored because resource history begins in 2016 | 216/227 diagnostic quiet weeks stayed quiet; warnings occurred in 2020 and 2025 | Experimental warning |
| Wessex WaterSingle integrated Wessex Water Resource Zone. Wessex last imposed a hosepipe ban in 1976. In 2022 its reservoirs entered Level 2, but the overall integrated position stayed at Level 1b because groundwater remained stronger, and no ban was imposed. The retained Woodyates groundwater indicator cannot represent the mixed-system decision, while the wider historical resource state is not publicly covering the same dates. Still needed: A covering the same dates history of the integrated reservoir, groundwater, river, transfer and demand state extending to a restriction start. The planned wider reservoir feed alone will improve context but cannot supply the missing 1976 system state. Sources: Wessex Water Drought Plan ↗; Wessex Water WRMP24 drought review ↗ | 0 target-safe restriction starts in the public-data era | 2022 is a verified reservoir-Level-2/no-ban counterexample | Waiting for usable data |